Interview with David Kramer was taken in Warsaw on the eve of NATO Summit 2016. David Kramer is Senior Director for Human Rights and Democracy at The McCain Institute. Between 2010-2014 he served as President of the organization “Freedom House”, and before he worked as the Assistant Secretary of State for Administration of George W. Bush.
Dear Mr. Kramer, what is expected of Ukraine and Georgia this year's NATO Summit in Warsaw?
In order for answer your question, it is important to understand its history at first. Let us recall the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, during which Ukraine and Georgia do not receive an Action Plan on NATO membership.I want to remind you the United States insisted these countries have provided plans, but radically opposed by Germany'sChancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.They explained their position as the reluctance to provoke the Russian Federation and agreed that Ukraine and Georgia are in the geopolitical orbit of the Kremlin.As a result, in the same 2008 Putin made aggression against Georgia, and later in 2014 - against Ukraine.Thus, the occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the annexation of the Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine are direct consequences of the refusal of NATO to a certain position on the accession of Ukraine and Georgia.
The NATO summit in Warsaw is significant because it takes place during a significant destabilization of the world. Russian aggression, terrorist attacks in the EU and the emigrant crisis show us the security problems in the world that need to be jointly addressed.Thus, the role of NATO actualized, and in tandem with the EU it must take a key role in solutions to these challenges.Today one of the main threats in the world is an aggressive Russia, which violated the territorial integrity of a sovereign state.During the Summit it should decide that clearly demonstrate the Alliance's preparedness in case of aggression, be prepared to answer it.During the Summit it should be taken decisions which clearly demonstrate the Alliance's preparedness to be ready to respond to aggression in case of it.Also preparing solutions to provide comprehensive support (financial, advisory, expert) for these countries, especially for Ukraine. At the same time, I think that Ukraine and Georgia in particular can be upset after this Summit, because it is not necessary to count on NATO membership.
How do you assess the assistance that the USA and the EU provide Ukraine and how Ukraine-USA relations may change after the presidential election in the USA?
In this context, I do not support the President Barack Obama’spolicies and believe that Ukraine needs a lot more help. Ukraine today is at the forefront of Russian aggression, and thus our duty - to help your state maximally. I am in favor of granting Ukraine the legal defense weapon broad package of financial aid and at the same time more complex isolation of Russia.This should help Ukrainian pay a lower price for defending their country against foreign aggression.Moreover, in the USA to Ukraine is an obligation under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum provide free assistance in case of aggression.Moreover, the US has obligations to the Ukraine, presented under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, to provide free assistance in case of aggression.As for the US presidential election, I`m very embarrassed.To a greater extent this applies to the candidate of my Republican Party, Donald Trump, who has all chances to become the next US president.This is a disaster for the US and for the world, because his rhetoric, incompetence and rudeness can put an end to the further development of the United States.Although Hillary Clinton belongs to the opposite camp - the Democratic Party, I and many of my colleagues will support her. It is the best of the worst options.As for Ukraine-US relations, they can cool down considerably if Trump wins.
How do you assess the prospects of the Minsk format and the further fate of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine?
Minsk format initially had many contradictions.It is clear that at the time of these transactions it was important to Ukraine to stop the breakout forces of Russia.But then we saw that Russia is not fulfilling its obligations and has accused Ukraine of not adopting a “special status” for Donbass.And it turns out that only Ukraine should perform transactions through its own interests, while it does not control the border with Russia and it is unable to fully ensure the holding of elections in uncontrolled areas. I would not recommend to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to decide on a “special status”, and what about the elections – it worth toconduct in time when Ukraine decides itself that the conditions prevailing are favorable for their conduct. At all Russia should not interfere in this process and the issues of elections shouldn`t be included in the Minsk format.
The expert was interviewed by the Director of The Research Center for Regional Security Nikolay Nazarov.
