Rational factors for the outbreak of war is not enough, but it might be triggered by some irrational circumstances. It is a consideration of an analyst from the World Policy Institute. We are discussing the statement of the Chief of Staff of the US Land Army Mark Milli about the inevitability of conflict between the US and Russia with the political scientist, analyst at the World Policy Institute Nikolai Byelyeskov.

Anastasia Bagaliki: Why does the conflict in Syria opens America’s “eyes” on Russian Federation?

Mykola Byelyeskov: Such statements were heard before, but not so drastically. Today is a new edition of the US military strategy 2015, which states that the US must prepare for a possible conflict with Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. The trend has been seen for a long time, about 2 or 3 years. The US Army has shifted from the policy of combating the terrorism to a possible military conflict with other major regional powers. Of course, some very radical statements were made only last week. They are the result of the steps that make the players in Syria.

State-revisionists know that during the election period the USA will not take any drastic steps, because it can hurt a candidate and the country.

Irina Sampan: And what can be said about the fact that America increases funding for defense and foreign aid?

Mykola Byelyeskov: Today there is reducing costs’ process in order to make the US budget a deficit-free one.

Why the budget had not been accepted? Some congressmen want to spend a larger proportion for the purchase of modern weapons, including for the procurement of modern ships and modernizing the army. But it provoked debate. Today the consensus is not reached.

One can fix the modernization of armament to counter not terrorists, but other states. Last week it appeared that the US is considering the option to modernize its main battle tank. The point is that America is supposedly preparing to fight. The first function of the Army is deterrence. If this function will not be successful, then it will fight.

I would not say that statements are supported by a radical increase of the budget radical steps in strategic nuclear arms. The Pentagon, like any organization, tries to knock a maximum budget.We should take into account several factors. One of them - a threat from other states. Other - fiscal problems.

Anastasia Bagaliki: After the elections, the situation in the US will change. When it comes to the open conflict, what kind of role the Ukrainian ground will take?

Mykola Byelyeskov: The Ukrainian media space appears rather negative trend. We have too high expectations to the one of the candidates. We are talking about Hillary Clinton. I very much doubt that Hillary Clinton, being in the Oval Office, will want to make moves that exacerbate the situation. There are no altruists in international relations. Nobody wants to take risks. Presumably, from Hillary Clinton can be expected to continue updating, strengthening strategies, which today carry the US. One might expect the increase of the presence of NATO in Europe. The question is whether Ukraine will be transferred to lethal weapons. The sanctions against Russia might be strengthened.

Anastasia Bagaliki: Could we exclude a situation, in which the US will have to intervene?

Mykola Byelyeskov: The situation is possible. As much as we would like, even hypothetical control of Russia upon Ukraine will not change the balance of power, which is now in favor of the US. Similarly, the situation in Syria. Instead it will create additional problems for Russia, as can be expected that the US will use the deteriorating situation.

Russia -  is not the Third Reich. Russia depends on the West. If Russia wants the war, there are some tools in the USA to prevent the spread of Russian aggression and to put in place.We have a partner who helps us, but not an ally. US does not see a need to take any risks now. If there is a full-scale war, it is another issue.

Anastasia Bagaliki: Why is Russia still not decided whether or not to start a full-scale war?

Nicholas Byelyeskov: Russia can occupy another part of Ukraine, but it will not solve the political problems. Probably Russia can not achieve these political goals. For example, to capture all of Ukraine. There is a high probability that the invasion of Ukraine to Russia will be a "second Afghanistan".

The further exhaustion of Russia may result in a situation, where a rational miscalculation will give a way to irrational step. Practice shows that Russia's foreign policy is irrational.

Irina Sampan: Where the conflict may arise?

Mykola Byelyeskov: In Ukraine, Syria, the Baltic and the Arctic. The war may start even in the Far East.We must prepare for war, but there should not be any fear and psychosis.

Irina Sampan: Who will be an ally for Russia?

Mykola Byelyeskov: None. China is pragmatic. It will not assume the risks associated with the foreign policy of Russia.

(c) Public Radio